'Sea change' due in state's growth policies By PETER JOHNSON Special To The Tampa Tribune
Citizens across Florida are concerned with the implications of the statistics that register the state's economic downturn. Many of our fellow citizens are part of the statistics, and that is most unfortunate.
Our downward spiral is, of course, closely linked to the national recession in real estate, irresponsible subprime lending and credit restrictions. But Florida's economic problems are both different and worse than the national mean.
Since Floridians have built their economy on the back of population growth and ever-expanding residential housing construction, we have been especially afflicted by the national recession. For the first time since the Great Depression, except for the World War II period, Florida's population growth has declined, and it is expected to decline further in the coming years.
Some economists say that the population decline will continue after the recession. We currently have an extraordinary glut of residential real estate measured by 10 months to 12 months of housing inventory. The normal is two to three months, according to those experts who follow such measures.
Sean Sneath, a University of South Florida economic forecaster, noted: "The days of 3 percent to 4 percent population growth ... are gone, and that's going to bring with it a host of challenges ..."
Political answers to this circumstance vary across the state, but in no case has there been an effort to reduce the housing inventory. Quite the contrary, the solutions fostered by our elected political leaders has been to reduce impact fees paid by developers and cut the price of building permits designed to increase construction.
As if facilitating an increase in housing inventory is the answer to the problem. With reduced population and large numbers of empty homes, someone must bear the burden of the essential services that we all require. In other words, poorly-thought-out economic policies are inevitably leading to higher taxes.
Instead of a real estate-oriented economic base, we must be looking at formulas that will revise the economy toward a different kind of industrial base. If we cannot count on continued population growth, we clearly should not be planning to rebuild the economy by building more houses.
A sea change in growth management policy is needed. In 2010 there will be a rigorous debate across the state between two important economic forces.
Those who argue for continuing with our unsatisfactory growth management policies will back a "Smart Growth" petition to amend the Florida Constitution.
On the other side of the argument is the Florida Hometown Democracy measure, which will be on the 2010 ballot as a result of more than 1 million petitions by Floridians.
The case will be made by the "Smart Growth" advocates who are invested in the construction-based economy that we should continue on the current path under the assumption that population growth will resume, the recession will pass and fundamental changes are unnecessary.
The large number of citizens who support Amendment 4 (Hometown Democracy) will show us why current growth management policies can and must change by placing more responsibility directly in the hands of voters.
We have obligations as citizens to understand the differences and responsibly sort out facts from fictions. There will be serious resources that emerge across the year to help us with these definitions. Use them, compare the arguments and begin to think through the best answers for our state.
Peter Johnson is a director of the Amelia Island Association, which is working to improve quality of life and promote efficient government.
